Don't Blow It

So I was thinking about blown saves the other day after Big Jon Broxton blew one versus the Braves.

As background info, here are the rules that govern a "save"

From MLB Official Rule Book 10.19:

A save is a statistic credited to a relief pitcher, as set forth in this Rule 10.19.
The official scorer shall credit a pitcher with a save when such pitcher meets all four of the following conditions:
(a) He is the finishing pitcher in a game won by his team;
(b) He is not the winning pitcher;
(c) He is credited with at least ⅓ of an inning pitched; and
(d) He satisfies one of the following conditions:
(1) He enters the game with a lead of no more than three runs and pitches for at least one inning;
(2) He enters the game, regardless of the count, with the potential tying run either on base, or at bat or on deck (that is, the potential tying run is either already on base or is one of the first two batters he faces); or
(3) He pitches for at least three innings.

The rules are pretty self explanatory. If you have a hypothetical situation where you're not sure if it should be a save, please post it.

So it seems pretty simple.

Get the last three outs of a ball game with up to a 3-run lead. Yet, how many times do you find yourself shouting at the TV, "Oh my God, I wicked hate you *closer*. You ALWAYS blow saves!!! If we had a good closer, we would have won this game."

Well, let's take a look at some notable closers and their save percentages to see what is an acceptable save percentage.

Name	Saves	Save %
1. Trevor Hoffman	579	89%
2. Mariano Rivera	514	89%
3. Lee Smith	478	82%
4. John Franco	424	81%
5. Dennis Eckersley	390	85%
6. Billy Wagner	385	86%
Francisco Rodriguez (K-Rod)	232	86%
Joe Nathan	229	89%
Jonathan Papelbon	140	89%
Bobby Jenks	139	87%

The first 6 are the top 6 all time leaders in saves, and the last 4 are current closers widely considered to be "automatic"

Two things jumped out at me:
1. How many players have a save percentage of 89%
2. There are no players over 89% in save percentage.

A typical closer makes about 50 appearances in save situations per year. Therefore, each percentage point drop results in a loss of half a save.

So in conclusion, as long as your closer is saving games at a rate in the mid- to high-80's, you can't really ask for more.