Curry House

I was writing a post where I state that Stephen Curry will never make a single NBA All-Star game.

I tried to back it up using statistics, but came to realize that there was no good angle I could take. Ultimately it boils down to how much of a drop off you think there will be going from Mid-Major Davidson to the NBA this season, and if he can build it back up over the course of his career.

Let's start with his Davidson stats:

Season Averages
YR	GMS	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	TO	A/T	STL	BLK	PF	FG%	FT%	3P%	PPS
2008-09	34	33.7	28.6	4.4	5.6	3.7	1.5/1	2.5	0.2	2.4	.454	.876	.387	1.42
2007-08	36	33.1	25.9	4.6	2.9	2.6	1.1/1	2.0	0.4	2.4	.483	.894	.439	1.42
2006-07	34	30.9	21.5	4.6	2.8	2.8	1/1	1.8	0.2	2.6	.463	.855	.408	1.40

Now we have to establish how he'll perform in the NBA.

In his peak three years I believe Stephen Curry will average no more than:
17 points per game
3 3-pointers per game
3 assists per game
1.5 steals per game
90% free throw percentage
37% 3-point percentage
45% field goal percentage

Here are ten seasons of past NBA guards within the past 5 years that come close to this mold

Name	Season	FG%	3PT%	FT%	Pts/G	3PT/G	Ast/G	Stl/G
Jason Richardson	2006-07	.417	.367	.657	16.0	2.2	3.4	1.1
Cuttino Mobley	2003-04	.426	.390	.811	15.8	2.1	3.2	1.3
Ben Gordon	2007-08	.434	.410	.908	18.6	2.0	3.0	0.8
Ray Allen	2007-08	.445	.398	.907	17.4	2.5	3.1	0.9
Eddie Jones	2003-04	.409	.370	.835	17.3	2.2	3.2	1.1
Ben Gordon	2005-06	.422	.435	.787	16.9	2.1	3.0	0.9
Michael Finley	2003-04	.443	.405	.850	18.6	2.1	2.9	1.2
Leandro Barbosa	2007-08	.462	.389	.822	15.6	2.0	2.6	0.9
Cuttino Mobley	2004-05	.438	.439	.820	17.2	2.3	2.8	1.1
Joe Johnson	2004-05	.461	.478	.750	17.1	2.2	3.5	1.0

There is only one All-Star among these players: Ray Allen. That season, Ray Allen had a much better first half than second half, so I partly blame that for an All-Star posting lower than usual overall season numbers.

In fact, none of the other players have been to an All-Star game at ANY point in their career, not just the years listed above.

Don't get me wrong, all of the other players are GOOD players. I think if Stephen Curry could be a Ben Gordon or an Eddie Jones or Cuttino Mobley, I think he will have had a good career. I just don't think it will have been a career that featured an All-Star game.

There may be some out there who are wondering about the Don Nelson factor. You're wondering if playing for a guy who runs high scoring offenses and spends more time every day wondering about breakfast sausage than improving team defense will inflate Curry's chances for making an All-Star team.

Consider these players who are short, scoring guards who played in one of Nelson's last six teams.

Monta Ellis 06-07, 07-08, 08-09
Baron Davis 06-07, 07-08
C.J. Watson 07-08, 08-09
Jason Terry 04-05
Devin Harris 04-05
Tony Delk 03-04
Nick Van Exel 02-03

Among them, zero All-Star appearances in those given years.

Obviously if you believe Stephen Curry will post better numbers than what I predict for him, then you have reason to believe he will one day be an All-Star. I just don't think so.