Here are the major questions that need to be answered.
1. How will his shoulder hold up?
The length of his start will obviously depend on his effectiveness, but if the Dodgers can stake him a big lead early, we will be able to get the best idea of where he is health-wise.
2. What kind of pitches will he throw?
This is Jason Schmidt's pitch distribution with his best years in San Francisco:
| Year | Fastball | Changeup | Curveball | Slider |
| 2002 | 73.4% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 11.5% |
| 2003 | 75.7% | 13.5% | 4.2% | 6.6% |
| 2004 | 64.6% | 25.8% | 3.6% | 5.7% |
| 2005 | 63.0% | 23.3% | 6.6% | 6.7% |
As you can see, Schmidt was a primarily fastball-changeup guy. He would overpower you with the fastball and keep you off balance with the changeup. He has a slider, but used used it less often as the years went by.
Obviously Jason Schmidt has to reinvent himself if he wants to succeed. He can't blow guys away anymore, so he's going to have to find other ways to get them out.
He can stick to his fastball-changeup routine, but he's going to have to start nibbling at corners and pitching smarter than he ever did before. Greg Maddux used a fastball-changeup combo and basically nothing else and everyone knows how well he fared with it.
Alternatively, Schmidt can bring back the slider and bring it into the mix, along with potentially his curveball. It goes without saying that he has to throw these pitches well, but if he can, it will place less of a burden on his being accurate.
Ideally, I would like to see Schmidt throw a 60-20-20 split of fastballs, changeups and sliders.
3. What can you expect from him?
I think if Jason Schmidt can give the Dodgers 6 innings and give up 4 runs or less, that should be considered a successful outing. The Ks don't matter. He can get 2 or 12, but I don't think it will mean much. Too many variables go into Ks to make any conclusions from one outing.
4. If he pitches well, will the Dodgers still go out and get pitching help?
In my opinion, the Dodgers absolutely should go get more pitching regardless of Schmidt's performance on Monday.
If he can consistently give the Dodgers at least 6 innings and 4 or less runs given up, then he will be just the fifth starter they've been looking for. McDonald and Weaver can move back to the bullpen permanently for this season as long guys. Hong Chih Kuo, Cory Wade, Ronald Beer Belly-sario and Will Ohman were all supposed to figure prominently this season in the bullpen. They're all injured. In their absence, Torre has turned to Brent Leach, Claudio Vargas, and Scott Elbert. That's not going to cut it.
The Dodgers have to make some moves, and a few relievers out there worth trading for are George Sherrill of the Orioles, Jason Frasor of the Blue Jays, and good old Joe Beimel of the Nationals.
If the Dodgers can get both Sherrill and Frasor, bullpen issues are OVER. Guaranteed.
It will be really exciting to see what Schmidt has to give, as well as his approach to facing batters. Even if he has a really bad outing, the Dodgers should give him a couple more chances to prove himself.
They owe him that much. (Along with $15.2 million in salary this year)
No comments:
Post a Comment