Take Me Out to the Ball Game

I bought half season tickets for the Dodgers this season. It's the first time I've ever purchased any ticket plan for any professional team. I wondered how easily I could sell my unused tickets and how much I would lose overall. The state of the economy fueled most of my worries, but I went through with it anyway.

Thankfully, with 4 games left that I am looking to sell tickets to, I have been able to break even. Selling tickets has been easy on stubhub and I plan to get full season tickets next year.

I've been fortunate because attendance at baseball games is down. Even at Dodger Stadium, which has been consistently in the top 3 every year in attendance, some games you are surprised at how many empty seats there are.

You know, I always wondered what it must be like to go to a 18,000 person Florida Marlins game. It must be pretty freakin awesome if you're a Marlins fan.
1. Ticket prices must be dirt cheap.
2. If you shout at players they can actually hear you.
3. No crowded parking or concessions lines.
4. There aren't enough people to successfully execute a wave. (GOD I HATE THE WAVE)
5. If you go to an empty outfield section, as long as you are the first person to get to the home run ball, it's yours! You don't even have to catch it.

I took a look at the top 15 teams in attendance this year and calculated the percent change in attendance from last year to this year.

Club	% Change
Yankees	-13.8%
Dodgers	-2.4%
Phillies	+4.5%
Cardinals	-3.8%
Angels	-1.9%
Cubs	-1.2%
Mets	-23.3%
Brewers	+1.1%
Red Sox	+.8%
Giants	0%
Rockies	-3.6%
Tigers	-20%
Astros	-11.8%
Braves	-2.9%
Twins	+2.8%

I knew the Tigers were going to get hit, but not this hard. You can blame the decrease in the Mets probably on ticket prices and lowered performances by the team. The Yankees' ticket prices are well documented and account for their decline.

I was actually surprised to see a few teams actually increase. I guess it's no shock that the World Champion Phillies would see an increase in attendance, but they had essentially the same lineup as they did last year. And I don't think you get 2,000 more fans a game because of Raul Ibanez...unless they're fans of Slingblade and the Astronaut Farmer. So it looks like the notoriously hardcore sports fans of Philadelphia are somewhat bandwagoners after all.

Another surprise was Milwaukee. That team outside of Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun (who they both had last year) sucks. Did they just now find out about the awesomeness of Prince? Or maybe it's just because there really isn't crap to do in Milwaukee.

I really hope attendance figures can bounce back next season. A baseball game is such a fun time that I don't think enough people get to experience.

Don't Blow It

So I was thinking about blown saves the other day after Big Jon Broxton blew one versus the Braves.

As background info, here are the rules that govern a "save"

From MLB Official Rule Book 10.19:

A save is a statistic credited to a relief pitcher, as set forth in this Rule 10.19.
The official scorer shall credit a pitcher with a save when such pitcher meets all four of the following conditions:
(a) He is the finishing pitcher in a game won by his team;
(b) He is not the winning pitcher;
(c) He is credited with at least ⅓ of an inning pitched; and
(d) He satisfies one of the following conditions:
(1) He enters the game with a lead of no more than three runs and pitches for at least one inning;
(2) He enters the game, regardless of the count, with the potential tying run either on base, or at bat or on deck (that is, the potential tying run is either already on base or is one of the first two batters he faces); or
(3) He pitches for at least three innings.

The rules are pretty self explanatory. If you have a hypothetical situation where you're not sure if it should be a save, please post it.

So it seems pretty simple.

Get the last three outs of a ball game with up to a 3-run lead. Yet, how many times do you find yourself shouting at the TV, "Oh my God, I wicked hate you *closer*. You ALWAYS blow saves!!! If we had a good closer, we would have won this game."

Well, let's take a look at some notable closers and their save percentages to see what is an acceptable save percentage.

Name	Saves	Save %
1. Trevor Hoffman	579	89%
2. Mariano Rivera	514	89%
3. Lee Smith	478	82%
4. John Franco	424	81%
5. Dennis Eckersley	390	85%
6. Billy Wagner	385	86%
Francisco Rodriguez (K-Rod)	232	86%
Joe Nathan	229	89%
Jonathan Papelbon	140	89%
Bobby Jenks	139	87%

The first 6 are the top 6 all time leaders in saves, and the last 4 are current closers widely considered to be "automatic"

Two things jumped out at me:
1. How many players have a save percentage of 89%
2. There are no players over 89% in save percentage.

A typical closer makes about 50 appearances in save situations per year. Therefore, each percentage point drop results in a loss of half a save.

So in conclusion, as long as your closer is saving games at a rate in the mid- to high-80's, you can't really ask for more.

Lookalike Friday 10

Oh yeah, Lookalike Friday time!

This week we have Colorado Rockies center fielder Dexter Fowler. I thought to myself, boy...doesn't he look a lot like...

Farnsworth Bentley?



I don't know what in particular makes me think of Farnsworth Bentley when I see Dexter Fowler, but I do. I think it has to do with the long chin and brilliantly straight teeth.

NFL Preview

So I printed the schedule and predicted the winner of each game. I wrote down the results. Here they are. This is in no way scientific or based on statistics. This is all from the brain of Toni Broxton. This will become obvious by the time you get to the end of the post.

End of Season Standings:

*projected playoff team
AFC

East: New England (10-6)* Buffalo (6-10) Miami (4-12) New York Jets (3-13)

West: San Diego (13-3)* Oakland (7-9) Denver (5-11) Kansas City (5-11)

South: Tennessee (13-3)* Indianapolis (12-4)* Houston (11-5) Jacksonville (10-6)

North: Pittsburgh (14-2)* Baltimore (11-5)* Cincinnati (6-10) Cleveland (2-14)

NFC

East: Philadelphia (13-3)* New York Giants (10-6) Dallas (6-9) Washington (6-9)

West: Arizona (10-6)* San Francisco (5-11) Seattle (3-13) St. Louis (2-14)

South: Atlanta (12-4)* New Orleans (11-5)* Carolina (11-5)* Tampa Bay (2-14)

North: Green Bay (13-3)* Minnesota (10-6) Chicago (7-9) Detroit (3-13)

Notes:
- I have no 8-8 teams. This is a problem. There are always a few 8-8 teams.
- The last team to get their first win is the Detroit Lions (week 9, at Sea)
- The last team to get their first loss is the Pittsburgh Steelers (week 12, at Bal)
- Can you tell I'm high on the Packers and Texans? (I could be so off on both of them)
- The AFC South is ridiculous. The AFC South is like the NL West. Bold prediction: All four teams in the AFC South will reach at least 10 wins.
- New England with only 10 wins? Yes they get Brady back, but I'm still not sold on their defense.
- The Chargers have a couple of tough teams to play, but for the most part they play an EASY schedule.
- Baltimore makes it over Houston to the playoffs based on division record tiebreaker.
- Miami falls from 11-6 to 4-12. They were able to sneak up on a lot of teams last year. Their schedule is so much harder this year. I just don't see them being able to win more than 4 games this year.

Playoffs:
AFC
Byes: Tennessee, Pittsburgh
Baltimore at San Diego: San Diego
Indianapolis at New England: Indianapolis

Indianapolis at Pittsburgh: Indianapolis
San Diego at Tennessee: San Diego

Indianapolis at San Diego: Indianapolis

NFC
Byes: Green Bay, Philadelphia
Carolina at Atlanta: Atlanta
New Orleans at Arizona: New Orleans

New Orleans at Green Bay: Green Bay
Atlanta at Philadelphia: Philadelphia

Philadelphia at Green Bay: Philadelphia

Super Bowl
Philadelphia over Indianapolis

Yes. That's right. Philadelphia Eagles Super Bowl XLIV Champions.

BOOYEAH!

*note: 8/7/09 - changed winner of AFC Championship to Indianapolis, changed Super Bowl matchup. forgot the Chargers have Norv Turner as head coach.

Tit for tat

If your pitcher hits my batter (especially the best batter), then my pitcher is going to hit one of your best batters.

Such is the mindset behind retaliation in baseball. It's barbaric, testosterone induced, outdated, macho behavior that should have no part in a professional game between men who depend on the health of their bodies for their livelihood.

Yet......I absolutely love it.

Hockey has its fights, football has its blindside legal hits (i.e. Hines Ward to Keith Rivers), and basketball has hard fouls for showboaters.

Without retaliatory hit by pitches, baseball has no method for players to police themselves, and as savage as it may be, this is important. Plus it increases the possibility for a brawl, which everyone loves.

I've never been a professional baseball player, so I have no idea, but it seems like the pitchers who do throw retaliatory pitches do so out of their own free will, and are never instructed to take action.

That having been said, it also seems like every pitcher knows when he should do the deed, it's just a matter of if he does. It almost always seems like if he actually goes through with it, he gains a lot of respect in his clubhouse.

The only crime in all of this is when the pitcher has to pretend to have done it on accident in post game interviews so he won't get suspended, even though everyone in the stadium knows it was on purpose. I really love it when the pitcher says, "Yeah I had to do something, so I took care of business."

I would be really sad if baseball started to really crack down on retaliations. If they did, you wouldn't get moments like this:

Lookalike Friday 9

I have a dilemma on my hands. There are some lookalikes that I have noticed in the past. However, it seems like these have become relatively well known. At the same time, there is an outside chance some readers of my blog may not have noticed. I would be remiss if I had a lookalike section but didn't include these people, especially if I had noticed them independently.

To that end, this week we have a two-for-one special at Lookalike Friday. Hopefully the volume will compensate for lack of originality.

1. This week we have Head Coach of the World Champion Pittsburgh Steelers, Mike Tomlin. I thought to myself, boy...doesn't he look a lot like...

Omar Epps (most famously from House)?



2. This week we also have Philadelphia Phillies Outfielder Jayson Werth. I thought to myself, boy...doesn't he look a lot like...

Edge from the WWE?

Jim Johnson (May 26, 1941 – July 28, 2009)

Jim Johnson, Rest in Peace.



Jim Johnson passed away today at the age of 68 after his battle with cancer.

Johnson was the defensive coordinator for the Eagles for the past ten years. He revolutionized the defensive game, being renowned for his intricate blitz packages. His philosphy gave birth to 26 Pro-Bowlers as well as the success of John Harbaugh (Baltimore Ravens Head Coach), Steve Spagnuolo (new St. Louis Rams head coach), Ron Rivera (San Diego Chargers Defensive Coordinator) and Leslie Frazier (Minnesota Vikings Defensive Coordinator). In the future there will undoubtedly be more branches in the Jim Johnson tree.

As an Eagles fan and a fan of football in general, this is an incredibly sad day. I always thought the Eagles might lose Johnson to another team, but not to cancer.

He was an innovator and a fighter. I don't know what we would have done without him, and I don't know how we will go on without him in the future. What I do know is that he will be missed.