Thursday Picks

Totally forgot about Thursday Picks last week, but not this week!

This week, though is marked by three huge mismatches. If I could find a moneyline parlay for the Eagles, Steelers, and the Vikings, I would put as much money as I could possibly put on it. That is the definition of easy money.

Alternatively, if I could find a teaser that brought down the spreads of those games down to Eagles -8.5, Steelers -4, and Vikings -3.5 I would be tempted to do that as well.

To be honest, I don't particularly like any other matchup very much this week. They are all too close. If I made any of these bets myself, I wouldn't put too much on it. That having been said, here is what I like the most.

Steelers -11 at Lions.
The Steelers will cover the spread. The Lions will be down by too many points too early to go for field goals at any point in the second half, thereby opening the door for the Steelers to maintain a 2 TD or more lead.

Patriots -3.5 at Broncos.
Belichick does well vs former assistants, and I don't think this will be any different. The Cowboys lost last week's game with poor tackling on the Brandon Marshall touchdown, and poor decision making by Romo. The Patriots, though they have a shakier defense than the Cowboys, will score points and keep the pressure on Kyle Orton to perform. This is the week Broncos doubters will get to point and say, "I told you so."

Texans +5.5 at Cardinals.
The Texans have a much better defense than they get credit for. In terms of yards per game, they have the 9th best pass defense and the 9th best rush defense. The Cardinals, on the other hand, do a great job against the run (6th best) but do an awful job against the pass (2nd worst). Matt Schaub will keep the Texans in this game, at least enough to keep it close until the end.

Colts -4 at Titans.
The Titans continue to get the benefit of the doubt on lines because of the perception that a 13-win team can't go winless much longer. The fact of the matter is that the Titans pass defense went from being 9th best in 2008 to DEAD LAST this year. Yes. The worst pass defense in the NFL playing Peyton Manning. Enough said.

Bet wisely and good luck.