Totally forgot about Thursday Picks last week, but not this week!
This week, though is marked by three huge mismatches. If I could find a moneyline parlay for the Eagles, Steelers, and the Vikings, I would put as much money as I could possibly put on it. That is the definition of easy money.
Alternatively, if I could find a teaser that brought down the spreads of those games down to Eagles -8.5, Steelers -4, and Vikings -3.5 I would be tempted to do that as well.
To be honest, I don't particularly like any other matchup very much this week. They are all too close. If I made any of these bets myself, I wouldn't put too much on it. That having been said, here is what I like the most.
Steelers -11 at Lions.
The Steelers will cover the spread. The Lions will be down by too many points too early to go for field goals at any point in the second half, thereby opening the door for the Steelers to maintain a 2 TD or more lead.
Patriots -3.5 at Broncos.
Belichick does well vs former assistants, and I don't think this will be any different. The Cowboys lost last week's game with poor tackling on the Brandon Marshall touchdown, and poor decision making by Romo. The Patriots, though they have a shakier defense than the Cowboys, will score points and keep the pressure on Kyle Orton to perform. This is the week Broncos doubters will get to point and say, "I told you so."
Texans +5.5 at Cardinals.
The Texans have a much better defense than they get credit for. In terms of yards per game, they have the 9th best pass defense and the 9th best rush defense. The Cardinals, on the other hand, do a great job against the run (6th best) but do an awful job against the pass (2nd worst). Matt Schaub will keep the Texans in this game, at least enough to keep it close until the end.
Colts -4 at Titans.
The Titans continue to get the benefit of the doubt on lines because of the perception that a 13-win team can't go winless much longer. The fact of the matter is that the Titans pass defense went from being 9th best in 2008 to DEAD LAST this year. Yes. The worst pass defense in the NFL playing Peyton Manning. Enough said.
Bet wisely and good luck.
Showing posts with label Thursday Picks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Thursday Picks. Show all posts
Thursday, October 8, 2009
Thursday, September 24, 2009
Thursday Picks
Slight modification to Thursday Picks. I won't keep track of how I did, nor will I analyze matchups I don't like. The post was getting too long.
Here we go:
Tennessee Titans +3 vs New York Jets
This game should be close and low scoring. Both teams would rather run and not pass unless forced to. I think mentally it's got to be tough for the Jets to keep up their pace and for the Titans to go 0-3. The Jets might win, but it'll be by less than 3. More likely I think Mark Sanchez has his first bad game as a pro and the Titans will pick up their first win.
Houston Texans -4 vs Jacksonville Jaguars
This Jaguars defense is going to give up big points to the Texans. It's going to be playing from behind all day, and though both teams will score a bunch, the Texans will dominate the entire game.
Detroit Lions +6.5 vs Washington Redskins
The Redskins are playing very poorly. Though the Lions aren't doing much better themselves, I think Detroit is going to be able to squeak out a win (or at least keep it close).
Indianapolis Colts +2.5 vs Arizona Cardinals
The Colts +anything and I'm taking it. I think the Colts will win this one easily. Peyton will get more help from his running game this week, be it Addai or Donald Brown.
Carolina Panthers +9 vs Dallas Cowboys
This is tricky because Tony Romo came off a rough week and should probably have extra motivation to play well. Also, the Panthers are absolutely awful when they play from behind. However, I think the Panthers will score early and run the ball into the ground. They may get beat at the end, but they will at least beat the spread.
Atlanta Falcons +4 vs New England Patriots
I probably wouldn't bet for the Falcons. Tom Brady will probably be able to pick apart the secondary, but I just have this feeling that the Patriots defense is not going to be able to stop Burner Turner. He's going to burn his way to 2 scores and 100+ yards. The only thing that keeps me from betting this one is that the Patriots might be able to outscore the Falcons.
Here we go:
Tennessee Titans +3 vs New York Jets
This game should be close and low scoring. Both teams would rather run and not pass unless forced to. I think mentally it's got to be tough for the Jets to keep up their pace and for the Titans to go 0-3. The Jets might win, but it'll be by less than 3. More likely I think Mark Sanchez has his first bad game as a pro and the Titans will pick up their first win.
Houston Texans -4 vs Jacksonville Jaguars
This Jaguars defense is going to give up big points to the Texans. It's going to be playing from behind all day, and though both teams will score a bunch, the Texans will dominate the entire game.
Detroit Lions +6.5 vs Washington Redskins
The Redskins are playing very poorly. Though the Lions aren't doing much better themselves, I think Detroit is going to be able to squeak out a win (or at least keep it close).
Indianapolis Colts +2.5 vs Arizona Cardinals
The Colts +anything and I'm taking it. I think the Colts will win this one easily. Peyton will get more help from his running game this week, be it Addai or Donald Brown.
Carolina Panthers +9 vs Dallas Cowboys
This is tricky because Tony Romo came off a rough week and should probably have extra motivation to play well. Also, the Panthers are absolutely awful when they play from behind. However, I think the Panthers will score early and run the ball into the ground. They may get beat at the end, but they will at least beat the spread.
Atlanta Falcons +4 vs New England Patriots
I probably wouldn't bet for the Falcons. Tom Brady will probably be able to pick apart the secondary, but I just have this feeling that the Patriots defense is not going to be able to stop Burner Turner. He's going to burn his way to 2 scores and 100+ yards. The only thing that keeps me from betting this one is that the Patriots might be able to outscore the Falcons.
Sunday, September 20, 2009
Thursday Picks update
Eagles, pick: $15 (wrong)
Panthers +6; $15 (wrong)
Vikings -10; $25 (correct)
Packers -9; $10 (wrong)
Raiders +3; $10 (correct)
49ers +2; $10 (correct)
Steelers -3; $15 (wrong)
Colts -3; $25 (correct)
$10 parlay to win about $900* (wrong)
$10 on a moneyline parlay on:
Vikings, Packers, Steelers, Colts (wrong)
$20 to win $70 on a 5 team teaser of 7 points on:
Patriots, Packers, Vikings, Steelers, Colts (wrong)
Risk: $165
Payout: $108.63
Net: -$56.37
It's a good thing this is all pretend haha.
Panthers +6; $15 (wrong)
Vikings -10; $25 (correct)
Packers -9; $10 (wrong)
Raiders +3; $10 (correct)
49ers +2; $10 (correct)
Steelers -3; $15 (wrong)
Colts -3; $25 (correct)
$10 parlay to win about $900* (wrong)
$10 on a moneyline parlay on:
Vikings, Packers, Steelers, Colts (wrong)
$20 to win $70 on a 5 team teaser of 7 points on:
Patriots, Packers, Vikings, Steelers, Colts (wrong)
Risk: $165
Payout: $108.63
Net: -$56.37
It's a good thing this is all pretend haha.
Thursday, September 17, 2009
Thursday Picks
A new special section for the Toni Broxton Blog.
I love betting on sports (only where legal, obviously). For the football season, every Thursday I will post what games I would bet on and how much, if I lived in Vegas. I very much wish sports betting was legal in all 50 states, and hope that will one day be the case. In the meantime, this will do.
Mostly my picks will be from the NFL because I neither feel incredibly confident in my college football knowledge nor do I enjoy non-Cal college football in general.
Ground rules: I will assume standard payouts (-110) when calculating how much I would have won or lost after the games. Moneyline parlays are stated, but may not have been possible if no moneyline bet is offered. Parlay and teaser winnings estimates provided by bodog.com. Lines are provided by espn.com
Without further ado...
Thursday Picks for NFL week 2
*lines as of Thursday, September 17
Saints at Eagles: even
Pick: Eagles, $15
You have no idea what Kevin Kolb brings to the table. The coaching staff seems to think he is capable, but I'm not sold. Who I am sold on is Sean McDermott, new defensive coordinator and Jeff Garcia. The defense will keep the Saints within reach, and if Kolb falters, Garcia will play well enough to get them the win. McNabb only passed for 79 yards last week. The weapons around him remain.
Panthers at Falcons: Falcons -6
Pick: Panthers +6, $15
The Falcons don't have the same pass rush the Eagles do and DeAngelo Williams will be used more often, as the Panthers will be able to get back to the way they like to play. They may lose, but by less than 6.
Vikings at Lions: Vikings -10
Pick: Vikings -10, $25
The Lions are definitely more than 10 points worse than the Vikings. The problem for the Lions is that even if the Vikings rest Adrian Peterson, Chester Taylor can destory them also. The Vikings backups and defense can maintain a 10 point lead against the Lions.
Bengals at Packers: Packers -9
Pick: Packers -9, $10
Not a terribly confident pick here, just because I think beating anyone by 9 in the NFL takes one of the 5 best over one of the 5 worst. I don't think the Bengals are one of the 5 worst teams in the league just yet.
Texans at Titans: Titans -7
Pick: none
Both teams are capable of much more than they showed Week 1. I have a feeling the Texans might be a Jekyll and Hyde type of team this year. Will probably stay away from them unless against obviously weaker teams.
Raiders at Chiefs: Chiefs -3
Pick: Raiders +3, $10
Not a confident pick, but the Raiders can at least run the ball on the Chiefs. The Chiefs won't be able to be as productive in the air as on the ground, but Oakland did a much better job against the Chargers running backs than people expected.
Patriots at Jets: Patriots -4
Pick: none
Usually home underdogs are a good bet to take a chance on, but this one has too many unknowns. I don't know truly how much better the Jets defense is than last year. I don't know how Mark Sanchez is going to play. I don't know what impact Jerod Mayo's absence will have on the Patriots defense. Too many question marks.
Rams at Redskins: Redskins -10
Pick: none
I could see it definitely going either way.
Cardinals at Jaguars: Jaguars -3
Pick: none
The Jaguars will run all over the Cardinals, but the Jaguars secondary is nothing to write home about. It should come down to turnovers, and I don't feel confident enough to bet on it.
Seahawks at 49ers: Seahawks -2
Pick: 49ers +2; $10
The 49ers were able to keep Arizona's passing game in check, and they should have enough offense to pull it off. Plus they have good momentum from the win last week.
Buccaneers at Bills: Bills -5
Pick: none
Too much of a toss up.
Steelers at Bears: Steelers -3
Pick: Steelers -3; $15
The Bears just don't have enough talent at wide receiver to come back when they're down, and the Steelers should be able to gain and hold a lead with Urlacher out. The Steelers running game will get back on track this week.
Ravens at Chargers: Chargers -3
Pick: none
Should be a nice, close game with scores in the teens for both teams. Don't know which way it'll go, though.
Browns at Broncos: Broncos -3
Pick: none
This one is also too much of a toss up. Leaning toward the Broncos, but not confident.
Giants at Cowboys: Cowboys -3
Pick: none
NFC East matchups are always tough, and this one is no different. Though, if I had to bet, I would bet for the Giants.
Colts at Dolphins: Colts -3
Pick: Colts -3; $25
Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams will get their rushing yards, but I don't think the Dolphins have an answer for Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark. They might also be so worried about the passing game that newly rejuvenated Jose Addai might be able to bust some big runs.
Recap:
Eagles, pick: $15
Panthers +6; $15
Vikings -10; $25
Packers -9; $10
Raiders +3; $10
49ers +2; $10
Steelers -3; $15
Colts -3; $25
I'd put $10 to win about $900* on a parlay on all of those picks, just in case.
I'd also throw $10 on a moneyline parlay on:
Vikings, Packers, Steelers, Colts
I'd also risk $20 to win $70 on a 5 team teaser of 7 points on:
Patriots, Packers, Vikings, Steelers, Colts
Risk: $165
Remember, this is strictly a hypothetical scenario. If I lived in Las Vegas, it would not be, but since I don't, I can only pretend. If you win money in Vegas using my advice and you offer me a cut, I will most certainly not turn it down.
*Was unable to find Eagles pick. A 7 team parlay of the other games was 1:80 payout, so I figured adding in a pick would probably boost it to about 1:90.
I love betting on sports (only where legal, obviously). For the football season, every Thursday I will post what games I would bet on and how much, if I lived in Vegas. I very much wish sports betting was legal in all 50 states, and hope that will one day be the case. In the meantime, this will do.
Mostly my picks will be from the NFL because I neither feel incredibly confident in my college football knowledge nor do I enjoy non-Cal college football in general.
Ground rules: I will assume standard payouts (-110) when calculating how much I would have won or lost after the games. Moneyline parlays are stated, but may not have been possible if no moneyline bet is offered. Parlay and teaser winnings estimates provided by bodog.com. Lines are provided by espn.com
Without further ado...
Thursday Picks for NFL week 2
*lines as of Thursday, September 17
Saints at Eagles: even
Pick: Eagles, $15
You have no idea what Kevin Kolb brings to the table. The coaching staff seems to think he is capable, but I'm not sold. Who I am sold on is Sean McDermott, new defensive coordinator and Jeff Garcia. The defense will keep the Saints within reach, and if Kolb falters, Garcia will play well enough to get them the win. McNabb only passed for 79 yards last week. The weapons around him remain.
Panthers at Falcons: Falcons -6
Pick: Panthers +6, $15
The Falcons don't have the same pass rush the Eagles do and DeAngelo Williams will be used more often, as the Panthers will be able to get back to the way they like to play. They may lose, but by less than 6.
Vikings at Lions: Vikings -10
Pick: Vikings -10, $25
The Lions are definitely more than 10 points worse than the Vikings. The problem for the Lions is that even if the Vikings rest Adrian Peterson, Chester Taylor can destory them also. The Vikings backups and defense can maintain a 10 point lead against the Lions.
Bengals at Packers: Packers -9
Pick: Packers -9, $10
Not a terribly confident pick here, just because I think beating anyone by 9 in the NFL takes one of the 5 best over one of the 5 worst. I don't think the Bengals are one of the 5 worst teams in the league just yet.
Texans at Titans: Titans -7
Pick: none
Both teams are capable of much more than they showed Week 1. I have a feeling the Texans might be a Jekyll and Hyde type of team this year. Will probably stay away from them unless against obviously weaker teams.
Raiders at Chiefs: Chiefs -3
Pick: Raiders +3, $10
Not a confident pick, but the Raiders can at least run the ball on the Chiefs. The Chiefs won't be able to be as productive in the air as on the ground, but Oakland did a much better job against the Chargers running backs than people expected.
Patriots at Jets: Patriots -4
Pick: none
Usually home underdogs are a good bet to take a chance on, but this one has too many unknowns. I don't know truly how much better the Jets defense is than last year. I don't know how Mark Sanchez is going to play. I don't know what impact Jerod Mayo's absence will have on the Patriots defense. Too many question marks.
Rams at Redskins: Redskins -10
Pick: none
I could see it definitely going either way.
Cardinals at Jaguars: Jaguars -3
Pick: none
The Jaguars will run all over the Cardinals, but the Jaguars secondary is nothing to write home about. It should come down to turnovers, and I don't feel confident enough to bet on it.
Seahawks at 49ers: Seahawks -2
Pick: 49ers +2; $10
The 49ers were able to keep Arizona's passing game in check, and they should have enough offense to pull it off. Plus they have good momentum from the win last week.
Buccaneers at Bills: Bills -5
Pick: none
Too much of a toss up.
Steelers at Bears: Steelers -3
Pick: Steelers -3; $15
The Bears just don't have enough talent at wide receiver to come back when they're down, and the Steelers should be able to gain and hold a lead with Urlacher out. The Steelers running game will get back on track this week.
Ravens at Chargers: Chargers -3
Pick: none
Should be a nice, close game with scores in the teens for both teams. Don't know which way it'll go, though.
Browns at Broncos: Broncos -3
Pick: none
This one is also too much of a toss up. Leaning toward the Broncos, but not confident.
Giants at Cowboys: Cowboys -3
Pick: none
NFC East matchups are always tough, and this one is no different. Though, if I had to bet, I would bet for the Giants.
Colts at Dolphins: Colts -3
Pick: Colts -3; $25
Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams will get their rushing yards, but I don't think the Dolphins have an answer for Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark. They might also be so worried about the passing game that newly rejuvenated Jose Addai might be able to bust some big runs.
Recap:
Eagles, pick: $15
Panthers +6; $15
Vikings -10; $25
Packers -9; $10
Raiders +3; $10
49ers +2; $10
Steelers -3; $15
Colts -3; $25
I'd put $10 to win about $900* on a parlay on all of those picks, just in case.
I'd also throw $10 on a moneyline parlay on:
Vikings, Packers, Steelers, Colts
I'd also risk $20 to win $70 on a 5 team teaser of 7 points on:
Patriots, Packers, Vikings, Steelers, Colts
Risk: $165
Remember, this is strictly a hypothetical scenario. If I lived in Las Vegas, it would not be, but since I don't, I can only pretend. If you win money in Vegas using my advice and you offer me a cut, I will most certainly not turn it down.
*Was unable to find Eagles pick. A 7 team parlay of the other games was 1:80 payout, so I figured adding in a pick would probably boost it to about 1:90.
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