Curry House

I was writing a post where I state that Stephen Curry will never make a single NBA All-Star game.

I tried to back it up using statistics, but came to realize that there was no good angle I could take. Ultimately it boils down to how much of a drop off you think there will be going from Mid-Major Davidson to the NBA this season, and if he can build it back up over the course of his career.

Let's start with his Davidson stats:

Season Averages
YR	GMS	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	TO	A/T	STL	BLK	PF	FG%	FT%	3P%	PPS
2008-09	34	33.7	28.6	4.4	5.6	3.7	1.5/1	2.5	0.2	2.4	.454	.876	.387	1.42
2007-08	36	33.1	25.9	4.6	2.9	2.6	1.1/1	2.0	0.4	2.4	.483	.894	.439	1.42
2006-07	34	30.9	21.5	4.6	2.8	2.8	1/1	1.8	0.2	2.6	.463	.855	.408	1.40

Now we have to establish how he'll perform in the NBA.

In his peak three years I believe Stephen Curry will average no more than:
17 points per game
3 3-pointers per game
3 assists per game
1.5 steals per game
90% free throw percentage
37% 3-point percentage
45% field goal percentage

Here are ten seasons of past NBA guards within the past 5 years that come close to this mold

Name	Season	FG%	3PT%	FT%	Pts/G	3PT/G	Ast/G	Stl/G
Jason Richardson	2006-07	.417	.367	.657	16.0	2.2	3.4	1.1
Cuttino Mobley	2003-04	.426	.390	.811	15.8	2.1	3.2	1.3
Ben Gordon	2007-08	.434	.410	.908	18.6	2.0	3.0	0.8
Ray Allen	2007-08	.445	.398	.907	17.4	2.5	3.1	0.9
Eddie Jones	2003-04	.409	.370	.835	17.3	2.2	3.2	1.1
Ben Gordon	2005-06	.422	.435	.787	16.9	2.1	3.0	0.9
Michael Finley	2003-04	.443	.405	.850	18.6	2.1	2.9	1.2
Leandro Barbosa	2007-08	.462	.389	.822	15.6	2.0	2.6	0.9
Cuttino Mobley	2004-05	.438	.439	.820	17.2	2.3	2.8	1.1
Joe Johnson	2004-05	.461	.478	.750	17.1	2.2	3.5	1.0

There is only one All-Star among these players: Ray Allen. That season, Ray Allen had a much better first half than second half, so I partly blame that for an All-Star posting lower than usual overall season numbers.

In fact, none of the other players have been to an All-Star game at ANY point in their career, not just the years listed above.

Don't get me wrong, all of the other players are GOOD players. I think if Stephen Curry could be a Ben Gordon or an Eddie Jones or Cuttino Mobley, I think he will have had a good career. I just don't think it will have been a career that featured an All-Star game.

There may be some out there who are wondering about the Don Nelson factor. You're wondering if playing for a guy who runs high scoring offenses and spends more time every day wondering about breakfast sausage than improving team defense will inflate Curry's chances for making an All-Star team.

Consider these players who are short, scoring guards who played in one of Nelson's last six teams.

Monta Ellis 06-07, 07-08, 08-09
Baron Davis 06-07, 07-08
C.J. Watson 07-08, 08-09
Jason Terry 04-05
Devin Harris 04-05
Tony Delk 03-04
Nick Van Exel 02-03

Among them, zero All-Star appearances in those given years.

Obviously if you believe Stephen Curry will post better numbers than what I predict for him, then you have reason to believe he will one day be an All-Star. I just don't think so.

UFC 100

I watched my first UFC event for the first time last night. I think I must have ordered 6 or so boxing events in the past, but never a UFC pay-per-view.

Suffice it to say, I know nothing about UFC.

I don't know too many of the fighters. I know there's a couple of good guys with the last name Silva. I know who Rampage Jackson is. I know Iceman Chuck Lidell. I know Brock Lesnar from the WWF. That about does it for me.

I don't know too many of the moves. I know what a guillotine is. I know an arm bar. I know what it looks like when someone gets knocked the eff out. That's about it as far as moves go for me.

So with limited knowledge, I watched UFC 100.

I'm sad we missed the first seven bouts, because there were three submissions that would have been fun to watch. The fact that after merely an hour and fifteen minutes they finished seven matches is, to me, awesome. I'll get to this later.

Michael Bisping getting destroyed by Dan Henderson was awesome. Georges St-Pierre defeating Thiago Alves was, at best, boring. Brock Lesnar knocking out Frank Mir was a spectacle. Jon Fitch defeating Paulo Thiago was boring.

So, of the four matches, two were good. About what I expected.

A couple of things I was thinking about:
1. What do I do with Brock Lesnar? I like him, but I don't.

I love guys with charisma. Brock Lesnar has charisma. However, Lesnar has moments where he is exceedingly unclassy, which I am not a fan of. I highly enjoy small amounts of classlessness (e.g. touchdown dances, sack dances, admiring a home run after hitting it, bat flipping after hitting a home run, team Korea planting the Korean flag on the mound after defeating team Japan in the WBC).

Brock Lesnar's classlessness was a bit too much for me. If he had praised Frank Mir after the fight, however contrived it may have been, I would have loved it. I was also not a fan of his flipping off the fans, but that may be holdover behaviour from the WWF. He gets a pass for that.

I'll reserve judgement on Lesnar for another day, but I'm leaning toward being a fan of his, especially in light of his post fight press conference. I liked what he said there.

2. UFC has an inherent entertainment advantage over boxing.

The matches are shorter, so the action is faster. This is more entertaining. This also allows UFC to schedule more matches per event than boxing, which is a great selling point for viewers. More fights means that you're going to see at least one knockout during the course of the event, which the reason why most people watch hand-to-hand combat.

With boxing you get about five matches, but nobody really watches the undercards because nobody really knows who these guys are.

For the main event, best case scenario is a knockout between rounds 8 and 12 or a decision with multiple knockdowns during the fight. Anything else is either a disappointment because of lack of action, or it is too short.

Boxing really should consider shortening its fights down to 7 rounds, max.

3. UFC President Dana White has an amazing product on his hands.

The biggest hurdle for the UFC was whether or not the public would accept it. The public has, without a doubt, accepted and embraced UFC.

UFC has fewer rules, fewer restrictions, and fewer governing bodies than boxing. UFC is actual legit fighting, which is its advantage over professional wrestling, but is almost as eventful.

UFC has found its place into a small, comfortable, profitable place of the fighting world between antiquated (boxing) and absurd (pro wrestling). You would think that the next step would be for some sort of unification of the different mixed martial arts companies, but I disagree. I think having all of those competing entities is good for the sport overall.

If you want to know which one I like better, UFC or boxing, my answer is neither. If I had to pick, I would say boxing because it's a known quantity to me, but I could definitely see myself becoming a UFC fan if I continue to order pay-per-views and get into it more. But I don't think that liking boxing for the sake of its having more history is a good reason to like it more than UFC. The Yankees have more history than the Rays, but I think the Rays are much funner to watch and are a better team.

Lookalike Friday 6

Oh yeah, Lookalike Friday time!

This week we have New Orleans Hornets point guard Chris Paul. I thought to myself, boy...doesn't he look a lot like...

Carlton Banks?



I say Carlton Banks, as opposed to Alfonso Ribeiro, because Alfonso Ribeiro now looks like this:


To those who may disagree, I admit my opinion that they look alike waned when I tried to find pictures displaying their similarities, but I posted it because I read other opinions online agreeing that they looked alike. Also, whenever you talk Carlton Banks, you get a chance to post this:



Have a great weekend.

Oh I'm Halla Down

The Toronto Blue Jays have expressed that if someone is willing to offer them a large package (of baseball players) then they would be willing to consider it in exchange for Roy Halladay. They would be willing to part ways with their ace starting pitcher because they're not sure they would be able to re-sign him when he hits free agency.

This is becoming a more common move, particularly with smaller market teams who don't have the funds necessary to re-sign their stud pitchers. Usually they are traded for prospects, so the team giving up the current star has a chance to possibly land a future star.

There have been some notable moves in the past few years. Here are some I've come up with off the top of my head. Analysis will follow. Basically I'm going to judge whether or not the team trading the stud ended up getting anyone good from the trade.

(numbers in parentheses are the player's birth year, if pertinent)
Oakland A's trade Tim Hudson to the Atlanta Braves
Oak: Charles Thomas, Juan Cruz, Dan Meyer
Atl: Hudson

Charles Thomas: No longer in league
Juan Cruz (78): Now with the Royals, solid relief pitcher
Dan Meyer (81): Waived by A's, now with Marlins

Verdict: Oakland wasn't able to land anyone good enough to stay on their team, but Hudson has been an overall disappointment with the Braves as well. More or less a wash.

Oakland A's send Mark Mulder to the St. Louis Cardinals
Oak: Dan Haren, Kiko Calero, Daric Barton
StL: Mulder

Daric Barton (85): still too early to tell
Kiko Calero (75): released by A's

Verdict: Again, the A's sold at the right time, because Mulder hasn't done much with the Cardinals since being traded there. The A's absolutely got a gem in Dan Haren, who played very well for them. Speaking of Haren...

Oakland A's trade Dan Haren to the Arizona Diamondbacks
Oak: Brett Anderson, Dana Eveland, Greg Smith, Chris Carter, Aaron Cunningham, Carlos Gonzalez
Ariz: Haren, Connor Robertson
(Later Rockies trade Matt Holliday to the A's for Huston Street, Greg Smith, Carlos Gonzalez)

Brett Anderson (88): Solid in minors, no good in handful of appearances in majors
Dana Eveland (83): Very average, end of rotation starter
Chris Carter (82): In Boston organization now
Aaron Cunningham (86): Still too young
Greg Smith and Carlos Gonzalez: Used to get Matt Holliday from the Colorado Rockies

Verdict: The prospects are too young to tell. Had Matt Holliday not been a huge bust in Oakland so far this year, I would be inclined to say this was actually not a bad move. Essentially you're getting 4 prospects PLUS Matt Holliday for Dan Haren. Since they're going to probably end up trading Matt Holliday before season's end, the question of whether or not the Dan Haren trade was good for the A's will be more complicated than Avril Lavigne in an episode of Lost.

Minnesota Twins trade Johan Santana to the New York Mets
Minn: Carlos Gomez, Phil Humber, Kevin Mulvey, Deolis Guerra
NY: Santana

Carlos Gomez: Starting CF for the Twins
Phil Humber (82): Has been very bad in a handful of appearances so far
Deolis Guerra (89) and Kevin Mulvey (85): Still too young

Verdict: If you can get any starter in one of these deals, I think it's a good deal. Carlos Gomez is a defensively good center fielder and quick on the basepaths, so any one of those other prospects who becomes a decent player is icing on the cake.

Cleveland Indians trade Carston Charles (CC) Sabathia to the Milwaukee Brewers
Cle: Matt LaPorta, Rob Bryson, Zach Jackson
Mil: CC, Michael Brantley

Matt LaPorta (85): Good in the minors, got called up earlier this year, still very young
Rob Bryson (87): Still too young
Zach Jackson (85): Not great so far in his starts

Verdict: Matt LaPorta will most likely be the only player of value gained from the Brewers. The only problem is that he is an outfielder and the Indians have three good or emerging young outfielders in Grady Sizemore, Shin-Soo Choo and Ben Francisco. His success as a Cleveland Indian remains to be seen.

Overall, these trades are usually, all things considered, productive ones for the team selling the star pitcher before he hits the free agent market.

I honestly don't think a Roy Halladay trade is going to happen because it seems like the Blue Jays want an incredible amount of talent in return for him, and the Blue Jays have been wearing him out this season so far. Both parties will not be able to come to an agreement over what is a fair trade for Roy Halladay. That is, unless the Blue Jays relax their demands or if a team gets really desperate to win this year.

Steve McNair

Rest in peace Steve McNair.

With media coverage of athletes being what it is these days, with so much access to their personal lives and footage of their interactions with others, you would like to think that you have a good idea of what kind of person a particular athlete is.

Steve McNair seemed like he was a great teammate and person to be around. He also seemed to be an all around classy guy to be around.

My new favorite athlete these days is Orlando Hudson, after seeing just how much of a class act he is on and off the field. Steve McNair, to me, embodied a lot of those same qualities that I appreciate about Orlando Hudson. I'm sure any former teammate, team employee, league employee, or team front office person will tell you the same.

The mystery surrounding his death is sure to unravel in the upcoming days. For now, all we know is that this was certainly a tragic way to die, for a guy who seemed to be so good.

Lookalike Friday 5

Oh yeah, Lookalike Friday time!

This week we have San Francisco Giants pitcher Matt Cain, who is having a breakout year. I thought to myself, boy...doesn't he look a lot like...

The guy from various commercials, most notably from the MLB 09 The Show commercial with Dustin Pedroia. You know, the one with the back and forth banter between him and Pedroia about how he can't hit an inside fastball?

So Ron, But it Feels So Right

Ron Artest to the Lakers, Trevor Ariza to the Rockets.

Wow.

If you asked me yesterday to list out the 100 most likely scenarios for Ariza's signing and the Lakers' subsequent signing of a replacement for him, this would not have cracked that list.

It makes sense and it absolutely doesn't.

What makes sense:
- The only advantage Ariza has over Artest is his age - 24 and 29, respectively. Artest is more physical. Though Ariza improved, Artest shoots the 3 point shot much better. Ariza is a solid defender, but there are few defenders in NBA history better than Artest.
- Artest comes DIRT CHEAP. 3 years, $6 million a year! Here are some other players making between $6 million and $7 million next year:
Vlad Radmanovic
Nazr Mohammed
DeSagana Diop
Jeff Foster
Dan Gadzuric
Tony Battie
Morris Peterson
Chris Duhon
Earl Watson
Jason Kapono
- Who was the last "crazy NBA guy" before Ron Artest? Who did Ron Artest wear 91 in honor of, when he was in Indiana? Dennis Rodman. Who was the one man able to tame said "crazy NBA guy"? Phil Jackson.

What doesn't make sense:
- Artest is good, but he's somewhat reached his peak. Ariza can get much better...AND HE DOESN'T DO THINGS THAT WOULD LEAD YOU TO BELIEVE HE'S CRAZY!!!
- Phil Jackson is most likely going to come back, but you would think that after this year, the Lakers are Kurt Rambis's team. Can Kurt Rambis handle Ron Artest? I suppose having Kobe there could help, much like having Jordan helped reel in Rodman, but I don't know. The next coach is going to have his hands full.
- Why would Trevor Ariza turn down the Lakers' $5.8 million, only to accept Houston's $5.8 million? To spite them? I suppose it makes sense. He could have signed with Cleveland, but then he wouldn't get to play the Lakers two more times. Someone (his agent, friends, media, me) got it in his head that he was going to get a raise more to the tune of $7- or $8-million a year, rather than the midlevel exception of $5.8 million, and his pride was hurt when the Lakers didn't offer a generous raise.
**by the way, the midlevel exception means that any team can use a set amount of money (the average salary of all NBA players, this year $5.8 million) to sign free agents even if the team is over the salary cap, or if signing that free agent would have put the team over the salary cap.**

An alternative explanation is that the Lakers never really made an offer to Ariza, only hinting that they would only offer a mid-level deal to gauge his interest, and went for Artest as soon as he became available. This would hurt my feelings too, if I was Trevor Ariza. You are an essential cog in a team's championship run, and they spurn you for someone who does things to lead people to believe he's crazy.

All in all, I think this move will prove to be a positive one for the Lakers ONLY IF they can re-sign Lamar Odom. This gives the Lakers a solid option in the off chance that Ron Artest somehow gets himself into trouble and is unable to play or suspended from playing.

This NBA offseason is ridiculous so far. A lot of teams are going to look so different. I love it.